Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 6 April 2026: 70.6% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −1.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 72.5% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 70.6% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 65.1% (Severe). Key drivers include Tehran’s rejection of the Hormuz deadline and intensified US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Such elevated scores suggest severe downside pressure, as investors brace for potential energy supply shocks and broader regional escalation.
Geopolitical drivers
- Tehran Rejects Hormuz Deadline92Iran's rejection of the US deadline for the Strait of Hormuz increases the probability of a total blockade, directly threatening global energy supply and shipping lanes.
- Intensified US-Israeli Attacks on Iran88Continued bombing of Iranian infrastructure by US and Israeli forces heightens the risk of a broader regional conflict, impacting global risk sentiment and energy prices.
- Houthis Enter Iran War72The formal entry of Houthi forces into the Iran war expands the conflict zone, further destabilizing Red Sea shipping lanes and increasing maritime insurance costs.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3859.42
- Gold Spot Price +195.70
- S&P 500 Index +105.53
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-25 | 71.0 | 70.2 | 75.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-24 | 71.5 | 70.3 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-23 | 73.6 | 72.8 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.