Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 30 March 2026: 71.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +3.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge71.9%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress74.2%
Geopolitical risk64.8
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial gauges signal nearly crash conditions.
US-Israel war and intensified Hezbollah fighting drive this.
Markets reflect heightened geopolitical risk and uncertainty.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Israel War on Iran Enters Fifth Week95Ongoing conflict in Iran directly impacts oil supply and prices, and increases geopolitical risk sentiment, affecting global markets.
- UN Peacekeeper Killed as Israel-Hezbollah Fighting Intensifies72Escalation in Lebanon risks wider regional conflict, potentially disrupting shipping lanes and impacting energy markets.
- Congestion of Ships in Hormuz Strait Observed64Congestion in the Hormuz Strait, a critical oil chokepoint, raises concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased shipping costs.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −438.14
- Gold Spot Price +160.60
- S&P 500 Index −137.63
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-25 | 71.0 | 70.2 | 75.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-24 | 71.5 | 70.3 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-23 | 73.6 | 72.8 | 78.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-20 | 70.5 | 69.1 | 78.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-19 | 68.9 | 67.6 | 76.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-18 | 66.1 | 64.7 | 74.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-17 | 68.1 | 66.6 | 76.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-16 | 70.3 | 69.2 | 77.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.