Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 17 April 2026: 64.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −3.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 56.9% (Risky). Primary drivers include ongoing US-Iran hostilities at 85.0% and the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire implementation at 38.2%. These "Nearly Crash" levels signal extreme systemic fragility, suggesting financial indicators are currently more distressed than geopolitical risks.
Geopolitical drivers
- Ongoing US-Iran Hostilities85Day 49 of the conflict continues to threaten energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Persian Gulf.
- Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Implementation38The start of the ceasefire reduces the immediate risk premium on regional energy supply/prices and stabilizes Eastern Mediterranean shipping routes.
- Mythos AI Model Stability Concerns55Warnings from finance ministers regarding the Mythos AI model indicate potential systemic shocks to credit/risk sentiment and financial market stability.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3865.68
- S&P 500 Index +216.62
- Gold Spot Price +50.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
| 2026-04-30 | 44.0 | 35.0 | 94.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.