Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 14 April 2026: 71.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +5.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 74.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 71.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 64.1% (Severe). The primary drivers are the US-Iran War and a Hormuz shipping blockade. These severe geopolitical pressures are directly driving financial markets toward a crash scenario.
Geopolitical drivers
- Hormuz Shipping Blockade92The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatens global energy supply and critical shipping lanes for food commodities.
- US-Iran War Day 4688Ongoing active hostilities between US and Iranian forces drive extreme volatility in energy supply and global risk sentiment.
- Russia-China Diplomatic Coordination61Lavrov's visit to China amid the Middle East crisis signals deepening ties that increase the risk of great-power escalation and sanctions.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +5675.09
- S&P 500 Index +274.41
- Gold Spot Price +148.90
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.