Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 16 April 2026: 65.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +2.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 67.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.6% (Risky). Main drivers include Iran War Escalation and UK Food Security alongside Australian Refinery Fire and Fuel Shortages. This data signals severe systemic fragility, suggesting a significant divergence between market valuations and deteriorating geopolitical stability.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran War Escalation and UK Food Security88The ongoing war with Iran is causing severe trade disruption and threatening food supply chains, leading to heightened inflationary pressure.
- Australian Refinery Fire and Fuel Shortages72A fire at a major Australian refinery exacerbates fuel shortages caused by the Iran war, directly impacting energy supply and prices.
- Israel-Lebanon Conflict Intensification66Intensifying military actions in Lebanon increase the risk of great-power escalation and broader Middle East energy supply disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3303.43
- S&P 500 Index +240.14
- Gold Spot Price +40.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 34.0 | 28.1 | 67.7 | Safe |
| 2026-04-30 | 44.0 | 35.0 | 94.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-29 | 42.0 | 32.6 | 95.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-28 | 34.2 | 28.8 | 65.1 | Safe |
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.