Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 23 May 2026: 65.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change ±0.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 54.4% (Risky). Geopolitical risk is driven by Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria and widening gaps in Iran-US peace talks. The divergence indicates that systemic financial vulnerabilities pose a more immediate threat to market stability than current geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran-US Peace Talk Gaps64Ongoing gaps in US-Iran peace talks maintain high risk premiums in global energy supply and threaten critical shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israeli Strikes in Lebanon and Syria68Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria despite ceasefire efforts threaten wider regional escalation, impacting oil prices and Middle East shipping lanes.
- Gaza Ceasefire Violations66Continued military actions in Gaza undermine ceasefire prospects, sustaining elevated geopolitical risk premiums in global shipping lanes and energy markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −4390.22
- S&P 500 Index +64.97
- Gold Spot Price −34.80
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-08 | 38.9 | 33.1 | 71.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.