Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 24 May 2026: 64.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 51.0% (Risky). Geopolitical risk is driven by Russian hypersonic strikes on Kyiv (72.2%) and progress in US-Iran peace talks (38.2%). These elevated readings signal severe systemic vulnerability, suggesting defensive positioning is warranted as market instability risks intensify.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russian Hypersonic Strikes on Kyiv72Large-scale hypersonic missile attacks on Ukraine's capital escalate great-power escalation risks and threaten regional energy supply/prices through infrastructure damage.
- US-Iran Peace Talks Progress38Progress toward a US-Iran deal could ease sanctions on Iranian oil, directly impacting global energy supply/prices and reducing threats to shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Balochistan Train Suicide Bombing42The deadly attack in Balochistan highlights persistent security threats to regional infrastructure, risking trade disruption along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1045.16
- S&P 500 Index +64.97
- Gold Spot Price −32.60
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 53.8 | 50.9 | 70.5 | Risky |
| 2026-06-05 | 39.4 | 35.0 | 64.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-04 | 41.1 | 37.0 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-03 | 35.9 | 30.4 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-02 | 36.8 | 31.4 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-01 | 36.3 | 30.3 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-29 | 34.9 | 30.1 | 62.4 | Safe |
| 2026-05-28 | 35.7 | 30.9 | 62.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-27 | 36.0 | 31.4 | 61.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.9 | 34.0 | 93.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-25 | 38.5 | 34.1 | 63.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-22 | 42.1 | 37.8 | 66.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-21 | 43.1 | 39.3 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-20 | 48.0 | 44.8 | 66.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-19 | 46.8 | 42.8 | 69.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-18 | 47.1 | 42.8 | 71.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-15 | 37.3 | 32.0 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-14 | 40.6 | 35.7 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-13 | 41.0 | 35.9 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-12 | 37.2 | 31.8 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-05-11 | 35.2 | 29.0 | 70.1 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.