Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 10 October 2026: 46.4% (Cautious)
vs previous day: n/a vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge46.4%Around the long-run middle. Some indicators are elevated; worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Financial stress43.7%
Geopolitical risk61.6
Market regimeneutral
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 46.4 (Cautious); financial stress is 43.7 (Cautious) and the geopolitical layer is 61.6 (Severe). Main financial contributors: 10y real yield, 1-month change (stress percentile 96); High-yield spread, 1-month change (stress percentile 95); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 62). Geopolitical drivers: Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Moves and Energy Trade Friction (49.3); Renewed Yemen Operations and Regional Conflict Costs (32.5).
Geopolitical drivers
- Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Moves and Energy Trade Friction49Trilateral talks alongside controversial Russian diesel purchasing plans impact global energy prices and sanctions/trade compliance.
- Renewed Yemen Operations and Regional Conflict Costs32Renewed Saudi-led coalition operations in Yemen and prolonged regional fighting sustain upward pressure on energy prices and maritime security premiums.
Biggest 5-day market moves
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 46.4 | 43.7 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.