Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 1 October 2026: 71.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge71.1%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress77.6%
Geopolitical risk51.6
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 77.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 71.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 51.6% (Risky).
Key drivers include escalating casualties in Gaza and allegations linking Iran to an attack on a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight.
Severe financial stress indicates markets are pricing acute systemic contagion, significantly outpacing the moderate geopolitical risk tier.
Geopolitical drivers
- Gaza prepares to bury hundreds killed in Israeli attacks66Continued high civilian casualties in Gaza can lead to increased geopolitical pressure, potential sanctions, and impact investor sentiment in the region.
- Iran implicated in Dubai-Tel Aviv flight attack64Potential Iranian involvement in an attack on a flight linked to Israel could escalate regional tensions, impacting oil prices and investor sentiment.
- Bank of England warns of AI-driven market shocks55Warnings of AI-induced market shocks can increase volatility and prompt investors to reassess technology sector valuations and risk exposure.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −844.32
- Gold Spot Price −116.80
- S&P 500 Index −54.49
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 70.2 | 75.9 | 53.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-10-02 | 70.2 | 75.6 | 54.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-10-01 | 71.1 | 77.6 | 51.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.3 | 76.1 | 53.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.3 | 73.6 | 56.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-28 | 65.8 | 69.6 | 54.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-27 | 68.3 | 73.2 | 53.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-26 | 67.2 | 73.2 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-25 | 72.1 | 79.7 | 49.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-24 | 71.7 | 79.1 | 49.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-23 | 63.7 | 68.6 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-21 | 63.9 | 69.0 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-20 | 63.9 | 69.1 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-19 | 64.7 | 69.1 | 51.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.6 | 70.1 | 48.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.3 | 69.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-16 | 67.6 | 73.4 | 50.2 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.