Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 28 September 2026: 65.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −2.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +1.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 65.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 54.3% (Risky).
Key drivers include recommended US-China tariff cuts alongside lingering uncertainties from the recent Trump-Xi summit.
Severe financial vulnerability diverges from moderating geopolitical tension, signaling persistent systemic risk despite tentative trade diplomacy.
Geopolitical drivers
- US, China list goods recommended for tariff cuts64Progress in tariff reduction talks between the US and China could ease trade tensions, potentially boosting global trade and improving risk sentiment.
- Trump-Xi summit: What wasn't said might matter60Subtle signals or lack of clear agreements from the Trump-Xi summit can create uncertainty in US-China relations, affecting global trade and investment flows.
- Terror incident near RAF base used for Iran war60An incident near a base involved in operations related to Iran raises concerns about regional escalation, potentially affecting oil prices and shipping.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1617.15
- Gold Spot Price −204.80
- S&P 500 Index +92.91
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.