Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 25 September 2026: 72.1% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +7.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 79.7% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 72.1% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 49.5% (Risky).
Key drivers include Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions at 63.8% and the US-China trade talks stalemate at 59.5%.
Acute financial distress nearing crash levels diverges significantly from moderate geopolitical tension, signaling severe internal market vulnerabilities.
Geopolitical drivers
- Ukraine Drone Attacks on Russian Regions64Escalation of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory could lead to retaliatory measures, impacting energy supply and increasing geopolitical risk sentiment.
- US-China Trade Talks Stalemate60Lack of progress in US-China talks raises concerns about continued trade friction, potentially disrupting global supply chains and impacting commodity prices.
- Houthi Attacks Escalate, Saudi Allies Rally55Mounting Houthi attacks and regional alliances could threaten key shipping lanes in the Red Sea, impacting oil prices and global trade flows.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +8111.50
- Gold Spot Price −96.80
- S&P 500 Index +66.37
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.