Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 29 September 2026: 69.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +3.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge69.3%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress73.6%
Geopolitical risk56.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges signal nearly crash conditions.
Ethiopia conflict and US-Iran talks are top geopolitical risks.
These factors suggest heightened market volatility and caution.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israeli Settler Attacks and Road Closures in West Bank68Increased violence and movement restrictions in the West Bank raise concerns about regional stability, potentially impacting trade and investor confidence in the Middle East.
- Ethiopia Conflict Intensifies64Escalating conflict in Ethiopia could disrupt regional trade routes and impact commodity supplies, leading to price volatility and increased risk sentiment.
- US-Iran Talks Unlikely to Yield Deal Pre-Midterms60Continued stalemate in US-Iran talks increases the risk of further regional tensions, potentially affecting oil supply stability and global energy prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −2809.60
- Gold Spot Price −204.80
- S&P 500 Index −81.01
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.