Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 30 September 2026: 70.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +1.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +6.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge70.3%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress76.1%
Geopolitical risk53.0
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash; Geopolitical is Risky.
Somali pirates and Pakistan's Saudi defense are top geopolitical drivers.
These risks may pressure markets, despite slightly higher financial gauges.
Geopolitical drivers
- Somali pirates kill oil tanker crew85This event directly threatens shipping lanes and oil supply security, potentially increasing crude oil prices and insurance costs for maritime transport.
- Pakistan vows to defend Saudi Arabia against Houthis60Escalation of regional conflict involving major oil producers can disrupt supply and increase geopolitical risk premiums, impacting energy prices and investor sentiment.
- India's Ujjain tense as mosque partially demolished for Hindu pilgrimage32Religious and social unrest in a major economy can lead to localized disruptions and impact investor confidence, potentially affecting regional trade and investment flows.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −3063.21
- S&P 500 Index −93.80
- Gold Spot Price −93.10
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.