Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 23 January 2026: 57.5% (Risky)
vs previous day change −3.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +6.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
Financial Composite hit 60.4% (Nearly Crash); Overall and Geopolitical layers are 57.5% and 48.8% (Risky).
Geopolitical drivers are Trump's Iran armada claim and Russia targeting Ukraine's power grid.
High geopolitical risk is pushing the Composite Gauge into the 60.4% Nearly Crash band.
Geopolitical drivers
- Trump claims US armada is heading towards Iran90This rhetoric significantly increases the risk of military confrontation in the Persian Gulf, directly threatening shipping lanes and global energy supply.
- Russia targets Ukraine power grid, causing blackouts72Continued attacks on critical infrastructure raise humanitarian risk and prolong the conflict, impacting European energy supply stability and risk sentiment.
- TikTok finalizes deal to split US app from global business55This action reflects escalating US-China tech decoupling, setting a precedent for sanctions/trade disruption and increasing regulatory risk for global tech champions.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −6664.72
- Gold Spot Price +324.80
- S&P 500 Index −31.12
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.