Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 27 January 2026: 56.5% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 57.5% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 56.5% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.5% (Risky). Escalating US-Iran rhetoric and a forming armada (95.0%) dominate risks, followed by the Nipah virus outbreak (42.2%). Extreme geopolitical tension suggests systemic risk, demanding defensive positioning and caution in equity exposure.
Geopolitical drivers
- US and Iran ratchet up rhetoric as 'big armada' forms95Direct military confrontation threatens energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
- Nipah virus outbreak triggers Asia airport screenings42Airport screenings and potential lockdowns disrupt supply chains and negatively affect travel/tourism sector risk sentiment.
- Ceremony for last Israeli captive returned from Gaza29The return of a captive is a potential de-escalation signal, influencing regional conflict risk sentiment and oil price volatility.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −4680.99
- Gold Spot Price +323.10
- S&P 500 Index +10.22
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-10 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 60.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-09 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 60.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.