Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 22 January 2026: 60.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +1.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +1.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 65.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 60.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 47.8% (Risky).
Top drivers are Japan's nuclear plant suspension (59.5%) and persistent global geopolitical tension (28.0%).
Extreme risk readings necessitate defensive positioning, especially given heightened energy supply concerns.
Geopolitical drivers
- Japan suspends world's largest nuclear plant60The suspension of the nuclear plant immediately after restart increases regional reliance on fossil fuels, putting upward pressure on energy supply/prices.
- Persistent Global Geopolitical Tension28Ongoing unresolved conflicts and sanctions maintain a persistent risk premium across energy, shipping, and global risk sentiment.
- Persistent Global Geopolitical Tension28Ongoing unresolved conflicts and sanctions maintain a persistent risk premium across energy, shipping, and global risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −6990.54
- Gold Spot Price +215.20
- S&P 500 Index −50.98
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.