Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 19 January 2026: 52.2% (Risky)
vs previous day change +12.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −3.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 53.2% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 52.2% (Risky), and the Geopolitical Layer is 49.2% (Risky).
Geopolitical risk is driven by Trump's 100% Greenland tariff threat and persistent global tension.
High geopolitical friction maintains broad risk aversion across all systemic market layers.
Geopolitical drivers
- Trump vows 100% tariffs on Greenland imports72This threat signals a major escalation in trade disruption, directly impacting global trade flows and increasing risk sentiment across equity markets.
- EU vows to protect interests against US tariffs64The commitment to retaliation confirms the potential for a full-scale transatlantic trade war, leading to sanctions/trade disruption and volatility in currency markets.
- Gold and silver prices hit high after tariff threat60The sharp rise in precious metal prices is a direct market transmission signal of increasing great-power escalation risk and a flight to safe-haven assets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1483.26
- Gold Spot Price +70.80
- S&P 500 Index −26.27
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.