Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 10 April 2026: 68.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +2.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −4.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 72.8% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 54.9% (Risky). The primary drivers are US-Iran hostilities and a potential Hormuz Strait blockage. This divergence suggests financial stress is outpacing the current geopolitical risk assessment.
Geopolitical drivers
- Hormuz Maritime Blockage92Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill despite diplomatic efforts to secure the waterway. Transmission: shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- US-Iran War and Ceasefire Uncertainty75Despite a fragile ceasefire, analysts warn that normalization of energy markets may take months. Transmission: energy supply/prices.
- Kuwait-Iran Drone Strike Allegations71Kuwait's blame of Iran for a drone strike risks expanding the conflict to critical oil infrastructure. Transmission: energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +4878.70
- S&P 500 Index +241.97
- Gold Spot Price +123.10
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-27 | 72.0 | 71.4 | 75.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-26 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 74.7 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.