Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 9 July 2026: 62.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +1.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 63.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 62.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.2% (Risky). The primary drivers are escalating US-Iran direct military strikes (88.0%) and potential Iranian retaliatory attacks on Gulf States (85.0%). These critical levels signal severe systemic vulnerability, threatening global energy markets and prompting defensive asset reallocation.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Direct Military Strikes Escalation88Direct military strikes between the US and Iran threaten global energy supply/prices and risk disrupting critical Middle East oil infrastructure.
- Iranian Retaliatory Attacks on Gulf States85Iranian strikes targeting Gulf states directly threaten shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy supply/prices.
- Collapse of US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement80The official termination of the ceasefire by the US increases great-power escalation risks and dampens global credit/risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2771.03
- WTI Crude Oil +5.40
- Gold Spot Price +3.60
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-24 | 51.1 | 49.0 | 62.8 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.