Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 8 July 2026: 61.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +5.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge61.0%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress62.9%
Geopolitical risk55.0
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 62.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 61.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 55.0% (Risky). This instability is driven by the collapsed US-Iran ceasefire and heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. This divergence between near-crash financial metrics and risky geopolitical layers suggests underlying systemic fragility and imminent market corrections.
Geopolitical drivers
- Collapse of US-Iran Ceasefire85The termination of the US-Iran ceasefire following mutual military strikes increases the risk of direct conflict. This escalation threatens global energy supply/prices as regional oil infrastructure becomes a potential target.
- Shipping Risks in Strait of Hormuz68Renewed US-Iran hostilities raise the threat level for commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. This directly impacts shipping lanes/chokepoints, leading to higher maritime insurance premiums.
- Re-imposition of Iran Sanctions66Trump declaring the MoU with Iran over signals a return to maximum pressure diplomacy. This will likely lead to stricter enforcement of sanctions/trade disruption, curtailing Iranian crude exports.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3551.82
- WTI Crude Oil +5.40
- S&P 500 Index +4.49
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-08 | 61.0 | 62.9 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-07 | 55.8 | 57.4 | 50.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-06 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 51.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-05 | 56.6 | 57.4 | 54.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-04 | 56.8 | 57.3 | 55.3 | Risky |
| 2026-07-03 | 56.0 | 57.1 | 52.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-02 | 57.7 | 59.6 | 52.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-01 | 57.0 | 58.7 | 52.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-30 | 59.8 | 63.0 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2026-06-29 | 59.2 | 62.1 | 50.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-28 | 61.3 | 63.8 | 53.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-27 | 61.0 | 62.5 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-26 | 59.7 | 62.3 | 52.1 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 63.0 | 67.5 | 49.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-24 | 60.9 | 64.8 | 49.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-06-23 | 58.1 | 60.4 | 51.2 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.