Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 10 July 2026: 60.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −1.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 60.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 60.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 58.6% (Risky). The primary drivers are the US-Iran conflict and peace talk stagnation (85.0%) alongside US Patriot licenses for Ukraine (80.0%). This alignment of high financial and geopolitical risks suggests severe systemic vulnerability, likely triggering defensive market positioning.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Conflict and Peace Talk Stagnation85Ongoing hostilities and stalled peace talks keep geopolitical risk premiums high, directly impacting global energy supply/prices and threatening critical shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz.
- US Patriot Licences for Ukraine80US approval of Patriot missile licenses to Kyiv risks great-power escalation with Russia, threatening further sanctions/trade disruption and volatility in European energy supply/prices.
- Gaza Governance and Conflict Spillovers55Uncertainties over Gaza's future governance prolong regional conflict risks, threatening Red Sea shipping lanes/chokepoints and maintaining elevated credit/risk sentiment premiums.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2887.78
- S&P 500 Index +60.40
- WTI Crude Oil +3.82
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-29 | 51.9 | 50.2 | 61.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-26 | 52.0 | 49.8 | 64.3 | Risky |
| 2026-06-25 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 63.0 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.