Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 8 August 2026: 70.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge70.0%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress74.5%
Geopolitical risk56.6
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 74.5% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 70.0% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 56.6% (Risky). Key drivers include U.S. secondary sanctions targeting Russia's trade with China and India, along with escalating Russian missile strikes near Kyiv. These regulatory and security escalations threaten global supply chains, pushing already fragile financial markets closer to systemic dislocation.
Geopolitical drivers
- US Senate passes secondary sanctions targeting Russia trade with China and India82New US legislation expansion threatens sanctions/trade disruption across major Asian buyers of Russian crude and commodities. This increases compliance costs and risks re-routing global energy trade flows.
- Russian missile strikes near Kyiv escalate regional security risks78Escalating aerial attacks near Ukraine's capital raise risks to European energy supply/prices and regional agricultural export logistics. Risk sentiment in European sovereign debt and equity markets remains under pressure.
- Proposed Mecca defence pact redefines US-Middle East security dynamics60Shifts in regional defense treaties directly affect security along vital oil shipping lanes/chokepoints in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Altered security guarantees could impact global energy market volatility.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +2078.98
- Gold Spot Price +291.60
- S&P 500 Index +267.92
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.