Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 31 July 2026: 72.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +6.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −7.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge72.7%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress75.8%
Geopolitical risk63.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 75.8% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 72.7% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 63.5% (Severe). Key drivers include IRGC strikes on US targets in Kuwait and soaring UK petrol prices amid the Iran conflict. These severe geopolitical escalations are rapidly inflating financial risk, threatening broader systemic stability across global asset classes.
Geopolitical drivers
- IRGC strikes US targets in Kuwait following US raids92Direct missile strikes on US positions in Kuwait mark severe military escalation in the Persian Gulf. Market transmission channel: great-power escalation and energy supply/prices disruption risks across Middle East crude exporters.
- UK petrol prices reach peak levels amid Iran war78Surging retail fuel costs reflect sustained global crude price pressure from Middle East conflict. Market transmission channel: energy supply/prices driving elevated inflation and tighter central bank monetary policy expectations.
- Israeli military operations expand along Lebanon border64Demolition of structures near Beaufort Castle points to persistent northern front kinetic hostilities. Market transmission channel: shipping lanes/chokepoints security in the Eastern Mediterranean and credit/risk sentiment across regional markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −1152.68
- Gold Spot Price +45.50
- S&P 500 Index +29.33
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.