Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 24 July 2026: 80.2% (Game Over)
vs previous day change +12.3 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +16.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge80.2%Extreme, crisis-like readings across markets and geopolitics.
Financial stress85.8%
Geopolitical risk63.3
Market regimeinflation
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 85.8% (Game Over), the Overall Gauge hit 80.2% (Game Over), and the Geopolitical Layer is 63.3% (Severe). Key drivers include US-Iran military strikes in the Persian Gulf and a severe wave of new global US tariffs. Critical financial stress outpacing geopolitical tensions signals severe liquidity constraints and heightened systemic risk across global asset classes.
Geopolitical drivers
- US and Iran Exchange Strikes in Persian Gulf85Continuous military exchanges in the Gulf directly threaten Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and global energy supply/prices.
- US Imposes Wave of New Global Tariffs66New multi-nation tariffs cause widespread trade disruption and depress global credit/risk sentiment.
- Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits St Petersburg Infrastructure64Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian economic hubs heighten great-power escalation and commodity energy supply/prices risks.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1172.42
- S&P 500 Index −125.47
- Gold Spot Price +48.30
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.