Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 11 August 2026: 70.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +6.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +7.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 75.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 70.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 57.1% (Risky). Key drivers include a major Libyan oil refinery blaze and Russia’s deployment of North Korean missiles in Ukraine. This divergence shows severe financial stress outpacing geopolitical risk, elevating immediate market vulnerability and systemic volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Major Libyan Oil Refinery Blaze75Fire at a primary oil refinery in Libya threatens immediate refined product supply, adding tightness to North African energy supply and regional export markets.
- Russia Deploying North Korean Missiles in Ukraine66Deepening military integration between Russia and North Korea expands great-power escalation and reinforces global trade sanctions disruption.
- Protracted Operations in Ukraine Conflict61Ongoing military campaigns offer no near-term diplomatic resolution, sustaining energy supply/prices volatility and commodity risk premiums across European markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +753.23
- Gold Spot Price +334.90
- S&P 500 Index +152.61
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-07 | 39.8 | 35.5 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-06 | 38.9 | 33.9 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-05 | 39.7 | 34.3 | 70.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-04 | 40.9 | 36.1 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.