Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 5 August 2026: 68.6% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +5.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge68.6%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress70.4%
Geopolitical risk63.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 70.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 68.6% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 63.4% (Severe). Main drivers include rising fuel prices from the Iran conflict and US warnings of severe strikes without a nuclear deal. These geopolitical pressures compound energy-driven inflation, exacerbating market fragility and pushing financial indicators closer to severe distress.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran conflict drives fuel prices higher85Escalating war with Iran is driving retail petrol prices to multi-month highs. This directly hits consumer spending and headline inflation through the energy supply/prices transmission channel.
- US warns Iran of severe strikes without nuclear deal82Diplomatic threats against Tehran heighten immediate risks of military action in key oil-producing regions. The transmission channel operates via energy supply/prices and risk sentiment in crude markets.
- Russian missile attacks exploit Ukrainian air defense shortages66Renewed Russian air dominance threatens Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure. Transmission channel impacts European energy supply/prices and defense sector risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- S&P 500 Index +307.74
- Gold Spot Price +193.70
- Bitcoin/USD +63.97
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.