Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 9 August 2026: 69.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 74.4% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 69.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 56.3% (Risky). Key drivers include Iran demanding an end to the US blockade at Hormuz and Israeli settlement tenders in the West Bank. Threats to critical oil transit routes heighten system vulnerability, compounding market stress and elevating overall financial crash risks.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran Demands End to US Blockade to Reopen Strait of Hormuz88Tehran's demands to end the US blockade to restore transit through Hormuz directly impact energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- Israel Announces Tenders for West Bank Settlement Units53Escalating West Bank tensions raise regional geopolitical conflict risks, triggering sanctions/trade disruption concerns and dampening credit/risk sentiment.
- Typhoon Dolphin Causes Severe Disruption in China47Mass flight cancellations and evacuations across key Chinese port regions threaten shipping lanes/chokepoints and regional manufacturing trade disruption.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1967.54
- Gold Spot Price +291.60
- S&P 500 Index +267.92
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-07 | 39.8 | 35.5 | 64.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-06 | 38.9 | 33.9 | 67.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-05 | 39.7 | 34.3 | 70.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-04 | 40.9 | 36.1 | 68.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-03 | 46.8 | 42.6 | 70.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-31 | 50.1 | 46.1 | 72.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.