Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 10 August 2026: 64.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −5.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +0.9 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge64.4%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress67.9%
Geopolitical risk53.7
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 67.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.7% (Risky). Key geopolitical drivers include Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and North Korean AI-enabled cyberattacks on financial networks. Financial stress outpaces geopolitical risk, indicating that internal market vulnerabilities present the primary threat to stability.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon63Active ground demolitions in southern Lebanon raise risk of regional spillover, placing upward pressure on Middle East energy supply/prices.
- North Korea AI-enabled cyberattacks on financial networks60State-backed cyber operations employing AI threaten critical infrastructure, undermining global banking credit/risk sentiment.
- Ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza Strip44Continued hostilities impede ceasefire prospects, depressing regional sovereign credit/risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1504.14
- Gold Spot Price +365.50
- S&P 500 Index +267.92
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.