Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 4 August 2026: 63.5% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change ±0.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +0.3 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge63.5%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress64.9%
Geopolitical risk59.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 64.9% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.5% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.4% (Risky). Key drivers include escalating conflict in Iran causing oil volatility and US states suing to block foreign tariffs. These compounding geopolitical frictions heighten systemic fragility, driving cross-asset volatility and severe downside risk across global markets.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran War Escalation Drives Oil Price Volatility85Military escalation with Iran directly threatens Persian Gulf crude production and shipping flows. Market transmission channel: energy supply/prices.
- US States Sue to Block Broad Foreign Tariffs78Legal battles over multi-nation tariffs raise global trade uncertainty and supply chain costs. Market transmission channel: sanctions/trade disruption.
- Ukraine Attacks Logistics Sites in Moscow Region61Deep strikes on Russian economic assets escalate broader regional war dynamics and retaliatory risks. Market transmission channel: great-power escalation.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- S&P 500 Index +77.74
- Gold Spot Price +76.30
- Bitcoin/USD +44.24
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 70.8 | 75.4 | 57.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-10 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 53.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-09 | 69.9 | 74.4 | 56.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-08 | 70.0 | 74.5 | 56.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.