Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 24 August 2026: 70.0% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +1.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge70.0%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress74.9%
Geopolitical risk55.4
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash, Geopolitical Layer is Risky.
War in Iran and Ukraine air defense needs are top drivers.
These factors likely pressure oil prices and global stability.
Geopolitical drivers
- War in Iran impacts global oil prices85The ongoing war in Iran directly impacts global oil supply and prices, leading to higher energy costs for consumers and businesses.
- Ukraine seeks air defence boost amid conflict66Increased calls for air defence in Ukraine suggest potential for further escalation, impacting European security and potentially leading to broader sanctions or trade disruptions.
- Canada-US trade war escalates60A trade war between Canada and the US can disrupt supply chains, increase tariffs, and negatively affect cross-border investment and market sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +14232.88
- Gold Spot Price +279.70
- S&P 500 Index −111.39
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.