Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 27 August 2026: 68.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −1.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −2.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge68.8%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress73.6%
Geopolitical risk54.6
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash; Geopolitical Layer is Risky.
Israel's attacks and malign activity are top geopolitical drivers.
These risks suggest heightened market volatility and caution.
Geopolitical drivers
- Israel Continues Attacks on Syria, Lebanon64Ongoing military actions in the Levant can disrupt regional stability, impacting energy supply routes and increasing geopolitical risk sentiment.
- Malign Activity Detected Before Hugging Face Attack60Detection of advanced cyber threats targeting AI infrastructure can lead to increased cybersecurity spending and potential disruptions to tech supply chains.
- Speculation on Israel's Civil War Trajectory55Discussions about potential civil unrest in Israel can significantly impact regional stability and global risk sentiment, affecting markets.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +10480.38
- Gold Spot Price +136.50
- S&P 500 Index −32.28
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.