Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 31 August 2026: 62.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −7.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 65.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 62.2% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.9% (Risky).
US-Iran trade strikes and the Russia-China SCO summit are top drivers.
These geopolitical risks are weighing on market sentiment.
Geopolitical drivers
- US and Iran Trade Strikes64Renewed strikes between the US and Iran increase the risk of wider regional conflict, potentially impacting oil supply and prices.
- Russia-China SCO Summit60A meeting between leaders of Russia and China at the SCO summit could signal increased geopolitical alignment, impacting global trade dynamics and risk sentiment.
- US Plans New Sanctions on Iran55Further US sanctions on Iranian banks could disrupt financial flows and impact energy markets, increasing geopolitical risk pressure.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +691.68
- Gold Spot Price −155.60
- S&P 500 Index +37.39
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.