Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 26 August 2026: 70.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.6 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge70.2%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress74.9%
Geopolitical risk56.2
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash; Geopolitical is Risky.
Trump's Iran threats and Sudan's war risks are top drivers.
These factors suggest heightened market caution and potential volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Trump Threatens Iran's Partners with Secondary Sanctions72Threats of secondary sanctions on Iran's partners could disrupt global trade and supply chains, impacting energy prices and increasing credit risk sentiment.
- Sudan's War Risks Fragmentation After RSF Defeat66The potential fragmentation of Sudan's conflict could lead to prolonged instability, impacting regional trade routes and commodity supplies, and increasing humanitarian concerns with indirect market effects.
- UN Rejects Israel's Threat to Expel Gaza Residents70Escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even through threats, can increase regional instability, impacting energy prices and investor sentiment in the Middle East.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +14117.98
- Gold Spot Price +193.80
- S&P 500 Index −14.48
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.