Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 25 August 2026: 69.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −1.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
Financial Composite Gauge is 74.7% (Nearly Crash), Overall Gauge 69.4% (Nearly Crash), and Geopolitical Layer 53.6% (Risky).
Pakistan reports Iran-US war talks progress; Iran prepared for widened US sanctions.
Geopolitical tensions may be influencing the "Nearly Crash" financial readings.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran prepared to counter widened US sanctions68Iran's preparedness suggests potential retaliatory measures or increased defiance, which could disrupt energy supply chains and impact global trade.
- Pakistan reports progress in Iran-US war talks64Progress in talks could de-escalate regional tensions, potentially easing oil price volatility and improving risk sentiment.
- US carrier groups strain navy resources in Middle East55The presence of multiple US carrier groups indicates heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, potentially impacting shipping lanes and energy security.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +15344.95
- Gold Spot Price +316.20
- S&P 500 Index −92.20
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.3 | 34.4 | 60.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-24 | 36.6 | 32.8 | 58.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-21 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 56.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-20 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 42.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-19 | 36.3 | 37.0 | 32.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-18 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.2 | Safe |
| 2026-08-17 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 44.7 | Safe |
| 2026-08-14 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 53.4 | Safe |
| 2026-08-13 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 62.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-12 | 41.8 | 36.2 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-11 | 39.1 | 35.0 | 62.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-10 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 60.6 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.