Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 10 September 2026: 66.2% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +2.7 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −0.7 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge66.2%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress71.7%
Geopolitical risk50.0
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial gauges signal near-crash conditions.
Ukraine's attacks and Trump's Iran war prediction drive risk.
These geopolitical tensions likely fuel market caution.
Geopolitical drivers
- Ukraine Targets Russian Arctic Gas Plants72Attacks on Russian gas infrastructure could disrupt energy supply and prices, while escalating the conflict and impacting global risk sentiment.
- Trump Predicts Iran War Continues Past US Elections64This statement signals prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East, potentially affecting oil prices and regional trade flows.
- Israeli Attacks Kill Palestinians in Gaza39Continued conflict in Gaza can lead to increased regional tensions, potentially impacting shipping routes and investor confidence.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +829.61
- Gold Spot Price −52.70
- S&P 500 Index −30.24
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-08 | 40.7 | 32.4 | 87.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-07 | 35.4 | 31.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-04 | 33.2 | 29.0 | 57.1 | Safe |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.7 | 36.4 | 58.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-02 | 43.5 | 38.3 | 73.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.6 | 30.6 | 70.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-08-31 | 32.2 | 27.4 | 59.5 | Safe |
| 2026-08-28 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 58.3 | Safe |
| 2026-08-27 | 34.7 | 30.1 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-08-26 | 35.8 | 31.2 | 62.0 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.