Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 28 August 2026: 64.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −4.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −6.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge64.4%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress68.3%
Geopolitical risk52.6
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.4% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 52.6% (Risky).
Iran-US conflict and Gaza drone fire are top drivers.
These geopolitical risks are weighing on market sentiment.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran-US Conflict Six Months On64Ongoing conflict between Iran and the US creates persistent uncertainty for oil supply and regional stability, impacting energy prices and credit risk sentiment.
- Israeli Drone Fire in Gaza60Escalation of conflict in Gaza could disrupt regional shipping routes and increase geopolitical risk premiums, affecting energy prices and investor sentiment.
- Record Drought Grips Europe36Widespread drought in Europe threatens agricultural output and river transport, potentially leading to higher food prices and impacting supply chains.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +6350.82
- S&P 500 Index +89.83
- Gold Spot Price +34.10
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 73.4 | 80.2 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.