Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 17 January 2026: 39.5% (Cautious)
vs previous day change −11.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −16.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 52.7% (Risky), the Overall Gauge hit 39.5% (Cautious), and the Geopolitical Layer is 0.0% (Unavailable). No dominant geopolitical drivers were identified, leaving the layer score unavailable. The Risky Financial Composite score diverges from the Cautious Overall Gauge reading.
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-08 | 43.9 | 34.7 | 96.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-07 | 39.2 | 29.8 | 92.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-06 | 41.9 | 33.5 | 89.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-05 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 91.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-02 | 43.3 | 35.9 | 85.2 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.