Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 12 April 2026: 66.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −3.9 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −6.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 68.2% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 66.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 60.8% (Severe). Key drivers include failed US-Iran talks (82.5%) and reported Ukraine-Russia ceasefire violations (63.8%). These elevated readings signal significant systemic fragility, likely prompting defensive capital reallocation as market risk reaches critical levels.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-Iran Talks Fail to Reach Deal82Failure to reach a deal between the US and Iran raises concerns about renewed hostilities, potentially impacting oil supply and global risk sentiment.
- Oil Tankers Exit Strait of Hormuz Amid Fragile Ceasefire70Movement of oil tankers from the Strait of Hormuz, even with a fragile ceasefire, highlights the sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical events in the region.
- US-Iran Conflict Dynamics66The ongoing US-Iran conflict and failed diplomatic efforts are a key indicator of great-power competition, directly influencing global energy prices and risk premiums.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +4236.01
- S&P 500 Index +234.20
- Gold Spot Price +135.90
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 35.9 | 30.3 | 67.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-24 | 40.4 | 35.8 | 66.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-23 | 37.5 | 31.9 | 69.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-22 | 43.9 | 39.0 | 71.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-21 | 41.4 | 35.5 | 74.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-20 | 38.5 | 31.9 | 75.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-17 | 36.5 | 30.7 | 69.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-16 | 39.5 | 33.9 | 71.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-15 | 43.0 | 37.8 | 72.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-14 | 49.1 | 44.7 | 74.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-04-13 | 52.6 | 48.9 | 73.6 | Risky |
| 2026-04-10 | 54.0 | 51.6 | 67.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-09 | 55.9 | 54.0 | 66.7 | Risky |
| 2026-04-08 | 65.7 | 65.0 | 69.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-07 | 64.0 | 62.6 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.6 | 66.3 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-03 | 68.2 | 67.3 | 72.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-02 | 66.7 | 65.8 | 72.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-04-01 | 70.5 | 70.3 | 71.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-31 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 74.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-03-30 | 75.6 | 75.7 | 75.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.