Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 15 July 2026: 64.5% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 66.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 64.5% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 60.0% (Severe). Key drivers include Iran's regional military attacks and Trump's threats targeting Iranian infrastructure. This severe risk profile suggests impending market volatility and a potential flight to safe-haven assets.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran Launches Attacks Across Region85Iran's multi-front regional attacks and ongoing US strikes escalate Middle East tensions. This poses a severe threat to regional energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints.
- US Resumes Iran Ports Blockade82The US resumption of the Iranian ports blockade restricts Iranian oil exports. This directly impacts global energy supply/prices and tightens crude markets.
- Trump Threatens Iran Infrastructure68Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iranian infrastructure unless talks resume heighten geopolitical friction. This escalates great-power escalation risks and threatens global energy supply/prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +1255.74
- Gold Spot Price −33.60
- S&P 500 Index −22.09
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 56.9 | 54.2 | 72.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-29 | 53.0 | 49.9 | 70.6 | Risky |
| 2026-07-28 | 53.2 | 50.2 | 69.9 | Risky |
| 2026-07-27 | 52.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-24 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 71.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-23 | 44.9 | 39.8 | 73.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-22 | 46.1 | 41.4 | 73.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-21 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 72.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-20 | 49.4 | 45.7 | 70.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-17 | 45.2 | 40.6 | 71.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-16 | 41.6 | 37.0 | 68.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-15 | 46.1 | 42.2 | 68.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-14 | 47.4 | 44.2 | 65.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-13 | 39.7 | 35.7 | 62.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-10 | 40.5 | 38.5 | 52.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-09 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 51.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-08 | 43.9 | 42.5 | 52.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-07 | 41.9 | 40.1 | 52.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-06 | 44.8 | 43.0 | 55.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-03 | 46.6 | 43.9 | 61.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-02 | 46.5 | 43.8 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-07-01 | 46.1 | 43.3 | 62.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-06-30 | 49.4 | 47.5 | 59.9 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.