Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 13 July 2026: 63.3% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +3.2 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +7.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge63.3%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress64.5%
Geopolitical risk59.7
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 64.5% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.3% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 59.7% (Risky). The primary geopolitical drivers are US-Iran trade strikes at 85.0% and Ukrainian attacks on Russia at 59.5%. These near-crash thresholds signal severe systemic vulnerability, suggesting investors should adopt defensive strategies to hedge against escalating volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- US and Iran Trade Strikes85Escalating strikes between the US and Iran increase the risk of oil supply disruptions and broader regional instability, impacting energy prices and global risk sentiment.
- Ukrainian Attacks on Russia60Increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory raise concerns about further escalation, potentially impacting energy infrastructure and exacerbating sanctions-related trade disruptions.
- Yemen Government Attacks Sanaa Airport39Attacks on Sanaa airport in Yemen could disrupt regional shipping routes and impact oil transit through the Red Sea, affecting energy supply and prices.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −725.70
- S&P 500 Index +92.15
- Gold Spot Price −90.40
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-08 | 61.0 | 62.9 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-07 | 55.8 | 57.4 | 50.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-06 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 51.0 | Risky |
| 2026-07-05 | 56.6 | 57.4 | 54.4 | Risky |
| 2026-07-04 | 56.8 | 57.3 | 55.3 | Risky |
| 2026-07-03 | 56.0 | 57.1 | 52.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-02 | 57.7 | 59.6 | 52.2 | Risky |
| 2026-07-01 | 57.0 | 58.7 | 52.0 | Risky |
| 2026-06-30 | 59.8 | 63.0 | 50.1 | Risky |
| 2026-06-29 | 59.2 | 62.1 | 50.7 | Risky |
| 2026-06-28 | 61.3 | 63.8 | 53.9 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.