Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 23 July 2026: 67.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.4 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge67.9%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress69.0%
Geopolitical risk64.3
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 67.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 64.3% (Severe). Key drivers include heightened risks from attacks on commercial tankers and retaliatory US strikes along the Iran-Iraq border. These energy and supply disruptions are spilling into financial markets, elevating systemic risk indicators toward crash thresholds.
Geopolitical drivers
- Houthi and Iranian Strikes Target Commercial Tankers88Escalating attacks on commercial vessels near critical maritime chokepoints directly threaten global energy supply/prices and elevate freight insurance premiums.
- US Attacks Iranian Targets at Iran-Iraq Border Crossing82Direct US airstrikes along the strategic border corridor raise risks of great-power escalation and broader regional supply chain shocks, impacting energy supply/prices.
- US-Iran Diplomatic Deadlock Over Nuclear Deal Terms63Continued diplomatic impasse prolongs existing sanctions/trade disruption on Iranian oil exports, maintaining tight crude market fundamentals.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +939.70
- Gold Spot Price +110.30
- S&P 500 Index −73.44
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 69.3 | 74.1 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-06 | 69.3 | 72.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-08 | 61.0 | 62.9 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.