Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 21 July 2026: 67.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +6.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +4.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge67.7%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress69.3%
Geopolitical risk62.8
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.3% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 67.7% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 62.8% (Severe). Top drivers include Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks at 92.0% and US-Iran military escalation at 88.0%. These elevated risk thresholds signal severe systemic vulnerability, likely driving defensive asset reallocation and heightened energy market volatility.
Geopolitical drivers
- Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attacks92Active attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz directly threaten global energy supply/prices and critical shipping lanes/chokepoints. This escalates risk premiums for maritime transport and crude oil futures.
- US-Iran Military Escalation88Fresh US military strikes on Iran and warnings of retaliation raise the threat of great-power escalation in the Middle East. This risks disrupting regional energy supply/prices and triggering broader risk-off sentiment.
- US Tariffs on Canada72The imposition of 50% tariffs on Canada by the US administration signals severe sanctions/trade disruption between major trading partners. This is expected to impact supply chains and bilateral currency valuations.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +3866.83
- S&P 500 Index −72.06
- WTI Crude Oil +4.02
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 68.6 | 70.4 | 63.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.5 | 64.9 | 59.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.5 | 64.0 | 61.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-02 | 65.0 | 66.4 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-01 | 65.8 | 66.4 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-31 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 63.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-30 | 66.5 | 67.8 | 62.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-29 | 63.6 | 64.8 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-28 | 63.2 | 64.6 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.4 | 65.2 | 57.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-26 | 68.3 | 70.3 | 62.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-25 | 67.5 | 70.1 | 59.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-24 | 80.2 | 85.8 | 63.3 | Game Over |
| 2026-07-23 | 67.9 | 69.0 | 64.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-22 | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-21 | 67.7 | 69.3 | 62.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-20 | 61.7 | 62.0 | 60.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-19 | 64.1 | 66.1 | 58.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-18 | 63.8 | 66.1 | 56.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-17 | 63.7 | 64.6 | 61.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-16 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 58.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-15 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 60.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-14 | 63.7 | 64.5 | 61.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-13 | 63.3 | 64.5 | 59.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-12 | 60.1 | 58.9 | 63.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-11 | 59.1 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Risky |
| 2026-07-10 | 60.4 | 60.9 | 58.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-09 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 59.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-08 | 61.0 | 62.9 | 55.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-07-07 | 55.8 | 57.4 | 50.8 | Risky |
| 2026-07-06 | 55.5 | 57.0 | 51.0 | Risky |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.