Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 29 August 2026: 61.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −2.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −9.8 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge61.8%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress64.6%
Geopolitical risk53.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial gauges signal nearly crash conditions, with geopolitics remaining risky.
Iran war and Gulf security, plus US-Venezuela oil deal, are top drivers.
These factors suggest significant market volatility and potential divergence.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran War Six Months In, New Gulf Security Architecture85Ongoing conflict in the Gulf region directly impacts oil supply and shipping routes, leading to potential price spikes and increased insurance costs. This creates significant risk sentiment in energy markets.
- US-Venezuela 'Biggest Oil Deal in World History'75A major oil deal between the US and Venezuela could significantly alter global oil supply dynamics and prices, impacting energy futures and related equities.
- Somali Piracy Surges Amidst US-Iran War Ripples60Increased piracy in the Horn of Africa threatens vital shipping lanes, potentially raising shipping costs and insurance premiums, and impacting global trade flows.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −679.56
- Gold Spot Price +93.40
- S&P 500 Index +89.83
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 74.2 | 80.3 | 56.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-12 | 73.4 | 80.2 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.