Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 30 August 2026: 62.4% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +0.6 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −6.0 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge62.4%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress64.6%
Geopolitical risk55.8
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial gauges signal near-crash conditions, with geopolitics at risky levels.
Iran war strikes and US control of Venezuelan oil are top drivers.
These events suggest heightened volatility and potential supply disruptions.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran War Strikes on Gulf Energy Infrastructure85Direct strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure can lead to immediate supply disruptions and price spikes in global oil and gas markets.
- US Secures Control of Venezuelan Oil Reserves75This deal could significantly alter global oil supply dynamics and potentially lower prices, impacting energy market sentiment and producers.
- Myanmar Military Regaining Ground with China's Support51Escalation in Myanmar could disrupt regional trade routes and impact supply chains for key commodities, affecting credit and risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +995.63
- Gold Spot Price −94.20
- S&P 500 Index +37.39
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 74.1 | 80.2 | 55.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-13 | 74.2 | 80.3 | 56.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-12 | 73.4 | 80.2 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-05 | 66.0 | 71.0 | 50.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-04 | 66.1 | 71.4 | 50.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.9 | 71.9 | 51.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-30 | 62.4 | 64.6 | 55.8 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-29 | 61.8 | 64.6 | 53.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.4 | 68.3 | 52.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.8 | 73.6 | 54.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.2 | 74.9 | 56.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.4 | 74.7 | 53.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-24 | 70.0 | 74.9 | 55.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-23 | 68.4 | 73.4 | 53.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-08-22 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 57.4 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.