Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 4 October 2026: 49.6% (Cautious)
vs previous day: n/a vs 1 week earlier: n/a
Game Over Gauge49.6%Around the long-run middle. Some indicators are elevated; worth watching, rarely worth acting on alone.
Financial stress46.4%
Geopolitical risk67.7
Market regimeneutral
Summary
The Overall Gauge reads 49.6 (Cautious); financial stress is 46.4 (Cautious) and the geopolitical layer is 67.7 (Severe). Main financial contributors: S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high (stress percentile 41); High-yield credit spread (stress percentile 74); VIX volatility index (stress percentile 44). Geopolitical drivers: Houthi Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure (75.0); US-Iran Escalation and Regional Military Clashes (61.2).
Geopolitical drivers
- Houthi Strikes on Saudi Energy Infrastructure75Claimed strikes against Saudi oil facilities directly threaten crude output and heighten regional energy price volatility.
- US-Iran Escalation and Regional Military Clashes61Direct US warnings toward Tehran alongside active regional strikes heighten great-power escalation risks and pressure broader market risk sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- MOVE Treasury volatility +11.29
- WTI crude, 1-month move +10.74
- VIX volatility index +1.52
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.