Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 21 September 2026: 63.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change ±0.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change −10.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
Game Over Gauge63.9%Multiple stress signals agree. Historically fragile conditions for risk assets.
Financial stress69.0%
Geopolitical risk48.5
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 69.0% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 63.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 48.5% (Risky).
Key geopolitical drivers include Iranian claims of impending US strikes and the Russian parliamentary election victory by Putin's party.
Elevated financial stress signals severe market fragility, diverging from moderate geopolitical risks and warranting defensive positioning.
Geopolitical drivers
- Iran military claims US preparing to resume strikes64Potential for renewed direct conflict between Iran and the US could disrupt oil supply and increase geopolitical risk sentiment.
- Putin's party wins Russian parliamentary election60The continuation of the current political leadership in Russia may prolong existing sanctions and geopolitical tensions, impacting energy markets and global trade.
- Afghanistan reports Pakistani air attacks42Cross-border strikes increase regional tensions, potentially affecting trade routes and investor confidence in South Asia.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Gold Spot Price +36.00
- WTI Crude Oil −7.09
- S&P 500 Index −6.48
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 70.2 | 75.9 | 53.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-10-02 | 70.2 | 75.6 | 54.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-10-01 | 71.1 | 77.6 | 51.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.3 | 76.1 | 53.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.3 | 73.6 | 56.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-28 | 65.8 | 69.6 | 54.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-27 | 68.3 | 73.2 | 53.3 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-26 | 67.2 | 73.2 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-25 | 72.1 | 79.7 | 49.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-24 | 71.7 | 79.1 | 49.6 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-23 | 63.7 | 68.6 | 49.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-21 | 63.9 | 69.0 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-20 | 63.9 | 69.1 | 48.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-19 | 64.7 | 69.1 | 51.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.6 | 70.1 | 48.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.3 | 69.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-16 | 67.6 | 73.4 | 50.2 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-15 | 68.2 | 72.8 | 54.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-14 | 74.1 | 80.2 | 55.5 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-13 | 74.2 | 80.3 | 56.1 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-12 | 73.4 | 80.2 | 52.9 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-10 | 66.2 | 71.7 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.5 | 67.8 | 50.7 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-07 | 65.0 | 70.9 | 47.4 | Nearly Crash |
| 2026-09-06 | 65.7 | 71.0 | 50.0 | Nearly Crash |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.