Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 24 September 2026: 71.7% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +8.0 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +7.4 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Game Over Gauge71.7%Multiple stress signals agree (methodology v1).
Financial stress79.1%
Geopolitical risk49.6
Market regimerisk-off
Summary
Financial Composite and Overall Gauges are Nearly Crash; Geopolitical Layer is Risky.
US-China summit talks and AI tech decoupling are top drivers.
Stabilization talks may offer some market respite despite tech tensions.
Geopolitical drivers
- US-China Summit Stabilization Talks55Anticipation around the upcoming summit influences expectations for bilateral tariffs and export curbs, operating through the sanctions/trade disruption channel.
- Israeli Leadership Posture and Regional War Risk66Hardline political messaging at the UN ahead of elections sustains elevated risk premia via the energy supply/prices channel across Middle Eastern crude benchmarks.
- US-China AI Supremacy and Tech Decoupling61Escalating rivalry in artificial intelligence raises risks of intensified semiconductor export controls and tech supply chain bifurcation via the sanctions/trade disruption channel.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD +7429.71
- S&P 500 Index +154.22
- Gold Spot Price −103.90
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 49.6 | 46.4 | 67.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.8 | 49.4 | 65.7 | Risky |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.5 | 49.4 | 63.8 | Risky |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.8 | 48.4 | 64.6 | Risky |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 67.1 | Risky |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-25 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 60.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-23 | 34.4 | 29.8 | 60.8 | Safe |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.5 | 29.9 | 87.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-21 | 37.9 | 34.0 | 59.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.9 | 36.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.5 | 43.0 | 60.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-16 | 45.8 | 43.1 | 61.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.6 | 41.1 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.6 | 36.3 | 65.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.8 | 42.2 | 85.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-10 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 61.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 62.3 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.