Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 2 February 2026: 61.8% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change −0.1 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +5.1 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 64.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 61.8% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.4% (Risky).
Top drivers include a Russian strike on Ukrainian miners and high displacement risk near the Israel-Hezbollah border.
Extreme caution is warranted as geopolitical conflict risks drive both composite gauges into the Nearly Crash band.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russian strike kills miners in Ukraine72The continuation of targeted strikes on industrial infrastructure maintains a high war risk premium and impacts global commodity supply, particularly coal and minerals.
- High displacement risk one year after Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire66Persistent instability on the Israel-Lebanon border maintains high risk of great-power escalation and potential disruption to Eastern Mediterranean energy projects.
- Cuba denies security threat accusations as US raises pressure39Increased US pressure raises the probability of new sanctions or trade restrictions against Cuba, impacting regional trade and investment sentiment.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −8946.10
- Gold Spot Price +91.30
- S&P 500 Index +23.42
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | 49.5 | 49.4 | 50.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-13 | 50.0 | 48.5 | 58.9 | Risky |
| 2026-02-12 | 42.1 | 39.2 | 58.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-10 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 60.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-09 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 60.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.