Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 24 January 2026: 56.7% (Risky)
vs previous day change −0.8 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +17.2 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge was 58.6% (Risky), Overall 56.7% (Risky), and Geopolitical 50.9% (Risky).
Key drivers include continued Russian strikes and Turkiye’s warning regarding an imminent Israeli attack on Iran.
Pervasive geopolitical risk across all layers suggests sustained volatility and a defensive market posture.
Geopolitical drivers
- Turkiye warns Israel seeks opportunity to attack Iran90Explicit warnings of potential direct conflict between Israel and Iran significantly raise the risk of a major regional war, threatening global energy supply and critical shipping lanes.
- Russia strikes continue despite peace talks85Continued Russian strikes during peace talks signal protracted conflict, maintaining high pressure on global commodity markets and risk sentiment.
- US shifts defense focus, limiting allied support64The US prioritizing homeland and China over allies introduces systemic geopolitical instability, potentially increasing credit/risk sentiment for nations reliant on US security guarantees.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −6043.14
- Gold Spot Price +387.80
- S&P 500 Index −24.40
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-16 | 34.4 | 29.7 | 60.5 | Safe |
| 2026-01-15 | 44.4 | 35.1 | 96.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-14 | 42.6 | 32.9 | 97.7 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-13 | 38.6 | 28.2 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-12 | 37.4 | 26.7 | 97.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-09 | 43.4 | 34.0 | 96.8 | Cautious |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.