Daily risk briefing ·
Market crash risk on 1 February 2026: 61.9% (Nearly Crash)
vs previous day change +2.5 pts vs previous day vs 1 week earlier change +3.5 pts vs 1 week earlier
This briefing was published under methodology v1 (fixed thresholds, trend penalty, regime multiplier). Its numbers are kept as published and are not comparable with v2 readings. See the current methodology.
Summary
The Financial Composite Gauge registered 64.6% (Nearly Crash), the Overall Gauge hit 61.9% (Nearly Crash), and the Geopolitical Layer is 53.8% (Risky). Geopolitical risk is driven primarily by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran de-escalation talks. Extreme caution is warranted as both the Financial and Overall Gauges signal a Nearly Crash environment.
Geopolitical drivers
- Russia-Ukraine war continues (Day 1,438)60The protracted conflict maintains high risk in European energy supply and agricultural commodity markets, sustaining elevated geopolitical risk sentiment.
- Military threat looms over Iran despite talks80The persistent threat of military action against Iran poses a direct and immediate risk to the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and global oil supply/prices.
- Iran designates EU armies as 'terrorist groups'64This retaliatory move heightens sanctions risk and diplomatic breakdown, increasing geopolitical risk premiums, especially for European assets exposed to the Middle East.
Biggest 5-day market moves
- Bitcoin/USD −10451.38
- Gold Spot Price +91.30
- S&P 500 Index +23.42
Chart values use methodology v2 (point-in-time backfill), so they differ from the v1 numbers published above.
Show data table
| Date | Total | Financial | Geopolitical | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 50.9 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-13 | 50.0 | 48.5 | 58.9 | Risky |
| 2026-02-12 | 42.1 | 39.2 | 58.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-11 | 42.6 | 39.2 | 61.6 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-10 | 39.6 | 36.0 | 60.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-09 | 46.6 | 44.2 | 60.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-06 | 52.0 | 50.6 | 59.5 | Risky |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.8 | 42.5 | 64.0 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-04 | 42.2 | 39.0 | 60.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-03 | 35.7 | 31.5 | 59.8 | Cautious |
| 2026-02-02 | 40.9 | 37.3 | 61.5 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-30 | 36.8 | 31.9 | 64.2 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-29 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 63.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-28 | 32.6 | 26.9 | 64.6 | Safe |
| 2026-01-27 | 35.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-26 | 36.3 | 31.7 | 62.4 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-23 | 35.0 | 30.3 | 61.2 | Safe |
| 2026-01-22 | 39.8 | 36.6 | 58.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-21 | 46.6 | 44.0 | 61.1 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-20 | 36.4 | 32.1 | 61.3 | Cautious |
| 2026-01-19 | 34.6 | 29.7 | 62.2 | Safe |
Not financial advice. Use the gauge as a risk thermometer, not a timing oracle.